Nigeria and Russia – a history of broken promises
Nigeria stands tall as a colossus on the African continent. It is not only the most populous country in Africa, it also commands a lot of respect and wields undeniable influence. Its leaders command regional and global attention. It possesses one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, with immense potential for investment opportunities. Militarily, it is respected regionally and has proven itself invaluable in West Africa’s regional security architecture.
In sum, Nigeria is special, a power to reckon with in West Africa, a vanguard of the region, and to many of its countries, a capable big brother. Nigeria is however worried about Russia’s intentions and motives within the region and on the continent. Several issues inform its apprehension.
Broken promises
Nigeria and Russia enjoy cordial diplomatic relations that unfortunately have not realised the dividends that Nigeria expected from this long-standing relationship. Russia has always viewed Africa as a continent that enables it to keep an eye on Europe from the South, in the same way it does from Eastern Europe. This relationship, however, has been characterised by a string of broken promises that have spanned several years and needs re-examining.
Russia has always seen Nigeria as an ally that would allow it to get a foothold in the African continent. It began cultivating its relationship with Nigeria during the 1960s but did not make any inroads because Nigeria was careful not to strain its relations with the West.
Russia was only able to gain a foothold in Nigeria when it helped the country during the civil war of 1967-1970. Russian weapons helped Nigeria defeat the separatists who threatened the unity of the nation. Despite the repeated supply of weapons to Nigeria over the years, the Western ideological orientation ingrained in Nigeria’s leadership successfully kept Russian influence at bay.
Nigeria is however sceptical about the varied promises that Russia has made to Nigeria over the years. Despite numerous bilateral agreements signed between the two countries, a lot of broken promises characterise relations.
President Olusegun Obasanjo attempted to rekindle Nigerian-Russo relations when he visited Moscow in 2001. Many agreements were signed that touched on interstate cooperation. Numerous promises on various bilateral projects were made and never fulfilled.
Other suggestions made during the visit of President Dmitry Medvdev to Nigeria in June 2009 also never materialised. Talks surrounding the establishment of a petrochemical plant, nuclear energy collaboration, and oil exploration remained shrouded in mystery.
Nuclear energy was a major project that Nigeria and Russia decided to collaborate on. In an agreement signed in 2017, Russia agreed to build and manage a nuclear power plant in Nigeria to produce electricity. This agreement however was never actualised as Moscow kept quiet and delayed in effecting the project.
New negotiations on the same nuclear power plant project were undertaken by the Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar in 2024 but have yet to be finalised, showing that Russia is an unreliable development partner, not only for Nigeria but other African countries.
Regional influence of Russia in the Sahel
Nigeria is also worried about the erosion of democratic ideals within the West Africa region, specifically the Sahel. Russia’s
influence in the Sahel has encouraged
the entrenchment of undemocratic ideals, as exemplified by events in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic.
The rise of Islamic fundamentalism and jihadist groups created a security challenge that Russia exploited. Using its Wagner Group – now Africa Corps – Russia supports military juntas that overthrew democratically elected governments. These regimes have embraced Russia in a symbiotic relationship that sees Russia provide security in exchange for illegally acquired minerals.
These resources have been exploited by Russia to, among other ends, fund its war in Ukraine at the expense of the local populations. These local populations continue to suffer and languish in extreme poverty as leaders illegally propped up by Russia also further enrich themselves.
Diminishing influence of ECOWAS due to Russia’s influence on AES
Nigeria is staring in dismay as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) loses influence in the West Africa region due to the rise of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have charted a new course and broken away from ECOWAS.
Russia’s influence over these three states has driven a wedge in the regional bloc that has overseen and managed the affairs of West Africa. Nigeria and the region are greatly concerned that gains achieved through ECOWAS will be eroded, substantially setting the region back.
In essence, Russia has proven that its presence is detrimental to regional integration in Africa. Attempts at reconciling AES to ECOWAS have not been successful. Russia is happy to pull the strings of the AES in order to increase its anti-Western influence in the region.
Nigeria has a lot of influence within the ECOWAS community and commands respect as the biggest economy in the region. It needs to play a leading role in pointing out the ills and negative impact that Russia has had within the territory. This way countries in the region will raise their respective guard as they engage with Russia or any of its affiliates. Through a concerted call to action, ECOWAS will move to consolidate the gains it has made in the region while minimising Russia’s influence within its members.
