Africa’s food crisis amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine
When global leaders meet at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in September, they will confront yet another year of complex crises and conflict; amongst the issues to be addressed is Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Earlier in the year, the UNGA concluded its general debate on the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR), at least 10,000 civilians have been killed, and more than 18,500 injured – not counting the deaths among soldiers on both sides – during the Russian Federation’s unprovoked war of aggression, which has entered its third year.
Pressing for a cessation of hostilities and outlining current mediation efforts to that end, numerous speakers further expressed deep concern about the continued violation of human rights in the temporarily occupied territories. Many also condemned the attempted illegal annexation by the Russian Federation of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
At last year’s UNGA, most African states did not support the resolutions condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine. The reasons why African governments decided to abstain vary, but economic and trade considerations played a significant role.
Russia’s economic footprint in Africa is small, accounting for less than 3% of the continent’s total trade with the world. However, in certain sectors, Russia plays an outsized role. For example, a range of African countries rely heavily on imports of Russian wheat, fertilisers, and other agricultural products. In light of rising food prices on the world market, many of these countries seek to avoid provoking Moscow’s ire.
The irony is that Russia’s attack on Ukraine and its withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative have contributed more than anything else to undermine food security. While many African leaders acknowledge this, they stress that Western-imposed sanctions also contribute to price hikes and supply chain interruptions. For example, speaking at a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa bitterly complained that “bystanders” are going to “suffer from the sanctions that have been imposed against Russia.”
While Africa has over 65% of the world’s uncultivated land, it is a net food importer and has been severely impacted by the rise of global food prices, resulting in increased food insecurity. According to the IMF, staple food prices in Africa “surged by an average 23.9% in 2020-22 – the most since the 2008 global financial crisis.”
This has devastating implications for many Africans, where food items occupy the largest share in many household consumption baskets. Food items take up about 42% of African household consumption, reaching as high as 60% in countries affected by conflict and insecurity. In France and the United States, food items represent 13% and 6% of household consumption respectively, notes the United Nations.
According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), African countries spend over $75bn to import over 100m metric tonnes of cereals annually. In 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50% of their wheat products from the Russian Federation or Ukraine. Six of these countries (Eritrea, Egypt, Benin, Sudan, Djibouti, and Tanzania) imported over 70% of their wheat from the region.
30m tonnes of food shortage
The AfDB notes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered a shortage of about 30m tonnes of grains on the continent, along with a sharp increase in costs.
The UN’s 2023 World Economic Situations and Prospects report shows that Africa already had the highest prevalence of food insecurity globally in 2020, with 26% facing severe food insecurity and 60% of the population affected by moderate or severe food insecurity, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). During 2023’s Dakar 2 Summit on feeding Africa, the AfDB reported that this number rose sharply in 2022, with Africans now representing one-third (about 300m people) of the global population currently facing hunger and food insecurity.
Supply chain disruptions of primary farm inputs, including fertiliser imports from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, further threatened Africa’s food security. The World Food Programme (WFP) reported that global fertiliser prices have risen by 199% since May 2020, with prices for fertilisers more than doubling in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania in 2022.
According to the World Bank, Africa’s food production is already hampered due to low fertiliser usage, with “an average fertiliser application rate of 22kg per hectare, compared to a world average that is seven times higher (146kg per hectare).” The Bank estimates that fertiliser exports from major African suppliers, namely Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, which remain disrupted, will impact Africa’s food production and exacerbate food security throughout 2023.
The ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia has undeniably had far-reaching consequences for Africa’s food security. The disruption of grain and fertiliser imports from these nations has led to unprecedented challenges, worsening the continent’s already precarious situation. While African countries may have economic reasons for maintaining neutral or abstaining positions in international resolutions, the long-term impact of aligning with Russia in this context poses significant threats to their own food security.
In the face of complex global dynamics, Africa has the opportunity to assert its independence and focus on policies that prioritise the well-being of its people. Aligning with international efforts to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and advocating for global stability can help mitigate the adverse effects on food security. By standing with the international community in condemning aggression and seeking peaceful resolutions, African nations can contribute to a more stable world order and ensure a more secure future for their populations.
As UN Secretary-General António Guterres aptly warned, “If we do not feed people, we feed conflict.” The stakes are high, and the path forward demands a collective commitment to peace and prosperity that transcends short-term political considerations. African countries must act decisively to safeguard their food security and protect their citizens from the unintended consequences of global conflicts.
*Ian Dennis, an author, entrepreneur and TV host, holds a bachelor’s degree in commerce from Strathmore University (Kenya), and a master’s degree in digital journalism from Aga Khan University (Pakistan).
