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Nigeria Decides Live – Buhari on the cusp of victory

NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Nigeria Decides Live – Buhari on the cusp of victory

New Africa’s editorial director James Schneider is live tweeting on the ground in Nigeria at @schneiderhome, providing all the latest reaction and results as states announce their official results. Here we collate some of his analysis as the counting continues into the evening. Be sure to follow @NewAfricanMag for election updates. 

I’m writing up my results wrap piece to go out as soon as possible after the last states are announced. #Nigeriadecides

After 33 states & FCT
GEJ 14 states + FCT
GMB 19 states
GEJ 11,463,818
GMB 14,230,542
> 25% states
GEJ 24
GMB 24

#Taraba result
GEJ 52%
GMB 43%
Turnout 44% down from 55%
Swing from PDP to APC 7.5%

#Taraba result gives both candidates the required 25% in at least 24 states to avoid a run off. Whoever comes top, wins #Nigeriadecides

#Taraba official result
PDP 310,800
APC 261,326

Adams #Oshiomole, the #APC governor of #Edo state, has delivered a very strong result for #Buhari in his state #Nigeriadecides

#Edo results
GEJ 55%
GMB 40%
Turnout 32% down from 38% last time
Swing from PDP to APC 30%

#Buhari gets over 25% in #Edo state. That MUST put this run off chat to bed. Please. It was never gonna happen #Nigeriadecides

#Edo official result
PDP 286,869
APC 208,469

#Edo is being announced not #Taraba as the display wasn’t ready #Nigeriadecides

Remaining states are #Delta #Edo #Taraba #Borno #Sokoto #Nigeriadecides

#Buhari victory in #Benue has meant that my January predictions no longer 100% hold https://twitter.com/schneiderhome/status/561078770334187520 … #nigeriadecides oh well

I even made the mistake of going out on a limb & making an electoral map for #NigeriaDecides in Feb’s @NewAfricanMag

Feeling pretty good about calling it for #Buhari last night http://newafricanmagazine.com/buhari-on-course-for-victory-in-nigerias-historic-election/# … Were we the 1st media outlet to do so? #Nigeriadecides

North Central Total
PDP 1,558,623 – 39%
APC 2,264,614 – 57%
Votes cast 3,970,835
Swing from PDP to APC 22.5%
Turnout 42%

#Yobe results
GEJ 5%
GMB 91%
Turnout 46% up from 45% in 2011
Swing from PDP to APC 13.5%

#Yobe official result
PDP 25,526
APC 446,265
#Nigeriadecides

#Bauchi results
GEJ 8%
GMB 90%
Turnout 51% down from 64% in 2011
Swing from PDP to APC 7.5%
#Nigeriadecides

#Bauchi official results
PDP 86,085
APC 931,598

#Bauchi goes to #Buhari in a very big way. info coming up… #Nigeriadecides
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North Central has swung HARD to #Buhari #Nigeriadecides
246 retweets 16 favorites
Reply Retweet246 Favorite16

#Benue official results
PDP 303,737
APC 373,961
#Nigeriadecides

Interesting element in these elections has been reduced turnout, which is likely a function of PVCs &transparency NOT apathy #Nigeriadecides

#Kebbi is a big swing to #GMB. The largest swing in the NW but then it was Jonathan’s best NW state in 2011. #Nigeriadecides

#Kebbi results
GEJ 14%
GMB 79%
Turnout 49% down from 56% in 2011
Swing from PDP to APC 25.5%
#Nigeriadecides

#Kebbi result is better for Jonathan than provisional collations from Saturday night showed. #Nigeriadecides Don’t know why right now.

#Kebbi official results
PDP 100,972
APC 567,883
#Nigeriadecides

James Schneider @schneiderhome · 31m 31 minutes ago
#Zamfara result
GEJ 19%
GMB 78%
Turnout 53% up from 52% in 2011
Swing from PDP to APC 9%
#Nigeriadecides

#Zamfara official results
PDP 144,833
APC 612,202
#Nigeriadecides

#Adamawa result
GEJ 38%
GMB 57%
Turnout 44% down from 50% in 2011
Swing from PDP to APC 18.5%

#Adamawa official results
PDP 251,664
APC 374,701

It seems odd to say, but this election looks like it has been lost by Jonathan in the SE and SS. Didn’t get enough votes #Nigeriadecides

30 minute recess at #INEC. Gives me time to do some analysis for you #Nigeriadecides

South West total
PDP 1,821,316 – 40%
APC 2,433,193 – 54%
Votes cast 4,539,447
Swing from PDP to APC 18.5%
Turnout 32%

#Rivers results (I think – terrible collation officer John Etu)
PDP 1,487,075
APC 69,288
#Nigeriadecides

#Bayelsa result
GEJ 97%
GMB 1%
Turnout 61% – down from 86%

#Jega has decided to not cancel #Rivers result #Nigeriadecides The delay this morning was to decide that.

There will NOT be a run off. GMB will have enough states over 25% #Nigeriadecides 

#CrossRiver official result
PDP 414,863
APC 28,368

Of course, however, things will to court and some results will be challenged #Nigeriadecides

Results so far are not enough for GEJ to get competitive and back in the game. I’m sticking with my #Buhariwins projection #Nigeriadecides

Buhari holds the upper-hand, according to John Ashbourne. 

 

In absolute terms, Jonathan’s margin of victory in #Bayelsa is down on 2011. My projection is getting stronger & stronger #Nigeriadecides

#Gombe official results
PDP 96,873
APC 361,245
#Nigeriadecides

#Bayelsa official result

PDP 361,209
APC 5,194

#Lagos official result
PDP 632,327
APC 792,460

Jonathan doesn’t make 25% in #Niger – drops back to 18% #Nigeriadecides

#Buhari wins #Niger by a greater margin than in 2011. #Nigeriadecides

#Niger official results
PDP 149,222
APC 657,678

Prepare yourselves for a lot of results challenging today and going forwards #Nigeriadecides

Analyst John Ashbourne details Jonathan’s difficult evening. 

reaction.

@WalePhenomenon shows the extent to which Jonathan’s majority has been whittled away compared to this stage in 2o11. 

 

Here’s how results tonight compare to final results in 2011, courtesy of Daudi Nanambi. 

 

North central swings from PDP to APC
Kogi 37%
Nasarawa 6%
Kwara 38%
Plateau 17.5%
Average = 24.625

is up against it. To work out just how much so, I’m running numbers. I’ll get back to you all soon I hope

#Imo and #Plateau are both great results for Buhari. Much higher swings than he needs nationally plus smaller turnouts #Nigeriadecides

#Plateau result
GEJ 55%
GMB 43%
Swing from PDP to APC 17.5%
Turnout 56% – down from 63%
#Nigeriadecides

#AkwaIbom result
GEJ 93%
GMB 6%
Turnout 63% – down from 76% in 2011
Swing from PDP to APC 1.5%

#Imo drop in turnout is remarkable. 2015 – 42%; 2011 – 84%
*cough* *cough*

#Imo was GMB’s best chance of 25% in SE. Didn’t get there but will be pleased. GEJ victory margin may down & lower turnout #Nigeriadecides

#Imo result
GEJ 76%
GMB 18%
PDP to APC swing 19%
Turnout 42%
#Nigeriadecides

calls it a day, we reconvene tomorrow at 10am. He says goodnight but I will keep up the analysis for a bit longer

#Plateau State official results
PDP 549,615
APC 429,140
#Nigeriadecides

Jonathan’s vote count in is down about 100,000 on 2011

#Imo official results

PDP 559,185
APC 13,253
#Nigeriadecides

 official results

PDP 953,304

APC 58,411

Nice little graph of the results until now from contributor Adeoti Michael

Contributor Daudi Nanambi presents the story so far.

1 state left from South West – #Lagos. Results are contested by both sides at the moment. Turn out likely below national ave 

So we’ve had 15 & FCT so there are 21 states left to go. I will list them in the next tweets and lay out what’s at stake 

The story of the night is #Buhari getting his vote out in his areas and #Jonathan not doing so enough. #Nigeriadecides

Now gonna analyse the states #Buhari won but #Jonathan should be worried. Not stacking up enough votes in SE #Nigeriadecides

#Abia is a terrible result for #Jonathan. Turnout was just 30% due to registered voters not getting accredited. 2011 was 78% #Nigeriadecides

#Abia official results
PDP 368,303
APC 13,394
#Nigeriadecides

#Anambra official results

PDP 660,762
APC 17,926

#Kaduna results
GEJ 29
GMB 68
Turnout 49
PVC holders who voted
#Nigeriadecides

#Katsina
GEJ 7%
GMB 91%
Turnout 52%
PVC holders who votes 94%
#Nigeriadecides

The 5 states we’ve had so far in this section of results were all #Buhari core areas before anyone gets carried away #Nigeriadecides

#Kaduna official results
PDP 484,085
APC 1,127,760

#Kwara official result
PDP 132,602
APC 302,146
#Nigeriadecides

#Katsina results
PDP 98,937
APC 1,345,441

#Jigawa official results
PDP 142,904
APC 885,988

Turnout in #Kano down from 53% in 2011 #Nigeriadecides

#Kano vote has Jonathan down from 16% last time but importantly Buhari not splitting the vote with #Shekarau #Nigeriadecides

#Kano result
GEJ 10%
GMB 88%
Turnout 44%
PVC holders who voted 92%

#Kano official results
PDP 215,779
APC 1,903,999

State of play map from contributor Daudi Nanambi

Interesting spreadsheet featuring the latest results from @seyitaylor https://t.co/pH1VqF2mp2

The 13.5% swing figure is for the whole country & all 36 states + FCT not after these results are in. #Nigeriadecides @ea_akin

To win, GEJ needs a less than 13.5% swing to Buhari #Nigeriadecides @ellytj

Graph from analyst John Ashbourne showing Jonathan swing since 2011

 

#Nigeriadecides is extremely extremely close. Still to come are most of GEJ’s SE/SS heartland & GMB’s NE/NW. A long way to go still.

The candidate that has the most votes wins, provided they get at least 25% of the vote in 24 states. Not most states #Nigeriadecides

#Jega says we recess until 8PM and then go until we hopefully finish. #nigeriadecides

#Jega declares a recess before any more results come. He leaves it on a knife edge

The story so far – excellent graph from Twitter contributor @BeammieB

 

#Nasarawa turnout is down from 2011’s 50%. Jonathan is down from 59%. If this swing replicates across the country, GEJ wins #Nigeriadecides

#Nasarawa result
GEJ 52%
GMB 45%
Turnout 43%
PVC holders who voted 93%
#Nigeriadecides
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#Nasarawa official result
PDP 273,460
APC 236,838
#Nigeriadecides

For those that don’t know, there are 36 states in Nigeria plus the Federal Capital Territory #Nigeriadecides

Official #Oyo result
PDP 303,376
APC 528,620
#Nigeriadecides

 #FCT result

GEJ 50%
GMB 46%
Turnout 36%
PVC holders who voted 92%
#Nigeriadecides

#FCT official result (#Abuja)
PDP 157,195
APC 146,399

#Ondo results

GEJ 43%

GMB 51%
Turnout 39%
% of PVC holders who voted – 94%
#Nigeriadecides

#Ondo in line with collations from earlier #Nigeriadecides

#Ondo official result
PDP: 251,368
APC: 299,889
#Nigeriadecides

For consistency the % I’m giving for each party is of the total votes cast, not total valid. #Nigeriadecides 

#Osun is in line with what I had collated. Pretty good result for Jonathan despite losing. This is where #Ribadu won in 2011 #Nigeriadecides

#Osun state results
GEJ – 38%
GMB – 58%
Turnout – 48%
#Nigeriadecides

Official #Osun results
PDP: 249,929
APC: 383,603
#Nigeriadecides

#Kogi is a very big win of Buhari. It was a solid Jonathan state in 2011 #Nigeriadecides

In #Kogi, 92% of voters with PVCs cast their ballots #Nigeriadecides

#Kogi result
Jonathan 34%
Buhari 60%
Turnout 33%

Official #Kogi result
PDP: 149,987
APC: 264,851
#Nigeriadecides

Official #Kogi result
PDP: 149,987
APC: 264,851
#Nigeriadecides

#Enugu actually not a great result for #Jonathan. Last time he got 99% on a 63% turnout. #Nigeriadecides
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#Enugu turnout was 42% down massively from 63% in 2011. #Nigeriadecides

#Enugu result – GEJ 94% vs GMB 2% #Nigeriadecides

Official #Enugu result:
PDP: 553,003
APC: 14,157
#Nigeriadecides

#Ogun results are fairly in line with collations after 14/20 LGAs I had. GMB has come down a bit #Nigeriadecides

#Ogun turnout 33%, up from 28% in 2011 #Nigeriadecides. 94% of those who collected PVCs voted
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#Ogun state won by Buhari with 55% to Jonathan’s 37% #Nigeriadecides

#Ogun official result: PDP 207,950 vs APC 308,290 #NIgeriadecides

2.51pm – Process has problems but overall very successful and very impressive in context of expectations. #nigeriadecides

2.50pm – In 96% of those who collected their PVCs voted for president

official turnout is 43% up from 34% in 2011

official results: GEJ 57% vs GMB 39%

So result is identical to my collation for and out by 4549 (to few) for

Official result: PDP 176466 vs APC 120,331

2.39pm – From everything I’ve seen, this is a really close election. Real leadership will be required by , and

2.27pm – #Ekiti is the first state #nigeriadecides

2.19pm – Tense doesn’t begin to describe this #Nigeriadecides

2.18pm First results coming…. #Nigeriadecides

 

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Written by James Schneider

James Schneider is Senior Correspondent at New African magazine and was formerly the Editor-in-chief of Think Africa Press. He read Theology at the University of Oxford and has a particular interest in the study of political economy, capital flows, and equitable development. He is also a frequent commentator on African affairs for Monocle24 radio and other media. Email: j.schneider@icpublications.com. Follow him on Twitter @schneiderhome

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